WHY

By Robert Svadlenka

Like the air we breathe, "it" is something that we often take for granted. Once assumed unlimited in supply, now even developed nations are realizing its limits. It is the most precious of all resources, an essential component of almost every human activity, and vital to the health of all ecosystems. It is also what we human beings are made of - Water! And it is running out.

Surely such a dire prediction is unthinkable considering the seemingly vast water resources of Earth, the water planet! But the following statistics are indeed real, and startling: ¹

• Nearly 450 million people in 29 countries currently face severe water shortages.
• 20 percent more water than is now available will be needed to feed the additional three billion people who will be alive by 2025.
• As much as two-thirds of the world population could be water-stressed by 2025.
• Aquifers, which supply one-third of the world's population, are being pumped out faster than nature can replenish them.
• Half the world's rivers and lakes are seriously polluted.
• Major rivers, such as the Yangtze, Ganges, and Colorado, do not flow to the sea for much of the year because of upstream withdrawals.

If the current inefficient and destructive practices of water utilization are allowed to continue in the face of growing population, global water resource limits will be reached in a few decades. The severity of this crisis has prompted the United Nations to conclude that water scarcity, not a lack of arable land, will be the chief constraint to increased food production in the next few decades. Thus, the threat to water resources stands as one of the major crises facing the planet, akin in urgency to climate change, rainforest destruction, and the depletion of the ozone layer. The water issue is indeed pervasive, tying together many other world problems, especially poverty, hunger, ecosystem destruction, desertification, climate change, and even world peace. A response that is commensurate with the immediacy and severity of the impending crisis is warranted from government and private institutions.

Source: International Water management Institute, World water demand and supply, 1990 to 2025: Scenarios and Issues. Research Report 19 , based on map prepared for "A Vision of Water for Food and Development" See Footnote 6.

Water, Water, Everywhere...

Despite the fact that more than two-thirds of the Earth's surface is covered with water, 97.5 percent of this is salt water. This leaves only 2.5 percent as fresh water. Adding to the paradox, only a tiny fraction of the total fresh water resources is available for human use. About 70 percent of the fresh water on the planet is locked up in ice at the poles, and most of the remainder is retained as soil moisture or deposited in deep underground aquifers that are inaccessible to humans. In the final tally, less than one percent of all the fresh water on earth is technologically and economically accessible for human use. In fact, most of the convenient and relatively inexpensive sources of water have already been appropriated. ²

Additional statistics on water uses will help illuminate the world water situation. On a global average, drinking and sanitation require approximately 10 percent of the fresh water supplies, while industry, recreation, and other uses comprise about 20 percent. Irrigation, which accounts for 70 percent of all the water extracted from rivers, lakes, and aquifers, is by far the most intensive use of the world's fresh water resources. In certain countries, especially in sub-Saharan and Sahelian Africa, irrigation comprises 90 percent of the water uses.

Where Are the Water-Scarce Regions?

Water is unevenly distributed across the populated regions of the world. It is an irony of geography that two-thirds of the world's population lives in areas that receive only one-quarter of the world's annual rainfall. By contrast the most water-rich areas of the world, such as the Amazon and Congo River Basins, are sparsely populated. Some of the most densely populated regions of the world, such as the Mediterranean, the Middle East, India, and China will face severe water shortages in the coming decades. Even areas of the United States (particularly the southwest and parts of the midwest) are vulnerable to water shortages, as the media attention to the ongoing drought in California attests.

Future droughts may be difficult to predict because of the vagaries of climate change. Many scientists believe that the global distribution of water may be altered by climate change, shifting precipitation away from areas that are presently under cultivation. According the United Nations Environment Program, evidence suggests that El Nino, a warming of the waters of the southern Pacific Ocean, is becoming increasingly common as a result of global warming. The El Nino phenomenon is a major threat to agriculture as it typically induces intense flooding and droughts in populated areas of the world. In addition, warmer temperatures will increase evaporation of water from soil, exacerbating desertification that is currently occurring in Africa and other parts of the world. (Approximately 100 countries are presently affected by desertification.) In fact, the United Nations estimates that more than 900 million people now live in regions that are at risk of desertification. ³

Agriculture in a Water-Scarce World

Limited water supplies will be the primary obstacle to increased food production in the next few decades. During the Green Revolution most of the increases in agricultural productivity occurred on irrigated lands. This is because irrigated farmland is about five times more productive than rain-fed farmland. Today, irrigation-fed agriculture supplies about 45 percent of the world's food supply ⁴ . As population expands, irrigated land will be expected to produce most, or about 70 percent, of the additional food, in turn placing increased pressure on existing water supplies. ⁵

Whether agriculture is rain-fed or irrigated, increased food production requires more land and more water. However, for ecological reasons it would be unsound to rely primarily on rain-fed agriculture to produce the world's expanding food requirements. Expanding rain-fed agriculture would entail the clearing of massive areas of forests and savannas, threatening sensitive habitats and their biodiversity.

At present, there is enough food to feed everyone on the planet. The major reasons for world hunger are economic, social, and political; that is, poor people lack the jobs and money to buy sufficient food, or they lack access to land and other resources to grow their own food. However, the combination of expanding populations, degradation of environmental quality, and the unsustainable consumption patterns in industrialized and developing societies will induce water shortages that threaten the ability of the world to feed itself. While food security affects all nations, the threats to food security will be experienced most severely by countries that are the most vulnerable to rapid population growth, drought, social upheaval, and economic stagnation. These conditions could create millions of new environmental refugees, potentially destabilizing their host countries.

Unsustainable Consumption

Existing social problems and economic trends will compound the severity of the coming water shortage. Currently about 1.4 billion people lack access to clean drinking water, while more than half the world's population lacks adequate sanitation. Thus, new facilities must be developed for the increased population as well as the existing unserved inhabitants. Ensuring that everyone attains proper drinking water and sanitation facilities by 2025 will be a monumental task requiring the provision of services to five billion people in less than a quarter of a century. Meanwhile, as a result of industrial development and increasing living standards, water use grew at more than twice the rate of population increase during the 20th century.

Water Equity

The rapid urbanization occurring in the developing world is promoting a higher demand for water-intensive agricultural products, such as meat and other animal products. As development progresses, the higher per capita water demands of the more affluent urban dwellers will divert water from agriculture uses. Furthermore, the poor in both rural and shantytown urban areas, who are being financially outpaced by members of the growing middle class, will be increasingly unable to afford their basic water needs. At present, more than 1.3 billion people live in abject poverty, earning only a dollar a day or less per person; another 2 billion people are only marginally better off. ⁶

Official Response to the World Water Crisis

In response to concerns about the looming water shortages, the World Bank and the United Nations have commissioned studies and working groups to evaluate existing conditions, project future needs, and devise strategies for coping with the water crisis. They found that even with major improvements in water collection and distribution (that would provide 70 percent efficiency instead of the current average of 45 percent worldwide), there would still be a need for 20 percent more water, a prediction that has been termed the "world water gap." Unfortunately, since most of the readily available sources have already been appropriated, there are practical limits to how much additional water can be extracted from the environment. According to experts, even if the rate at which new water supplies were developed in the 1990s was sustained for the next few decades, there would still be a significant water shortages by the year 2025. ⁷

Building a New Relationship to Water

New water storage projects, optimal water management methods, and design innovations will be important components of the solution to the water crisis. But just as important will be the fostering of a more respectful attitude toward water and the ecosystems that provide it. For too many decades, we have treated the planet's water system irresponsibly, drawing unsustainable amounts from the environment, returning it degraded in quality, and naively expecting it to return again and again in a usable, almost pure state. We can no longer afford our spendthrift attitude toward water. The emerging water crisis endangers every aspect of human society - economic, social, ecological, and political. To avert the loss of food security and its attendant consequences, an unparalleled commitment of human and financial resources must be deployed. The crisis will not go away without intervention, and the longer action is postponed, the greater will be the human costs.

1. Ismail Serageldin, The World Water Gap - World's Ability to Feed Itself Threatened by Water Shortage , Press Release, March 20, 1999, World Commission on Water for the 21st Century.
2. Edwin B. Lake and Momar Souar, Water and Development in Africa, International Development Information Centre, September 1997.
3. Desertification: Serious Threat or Global Myth? , October 1994, International Development Centre.
4. Sandra Postel, Pillar of Sand: Can the Irrigation Miracle Last?. W. W. Norton/Worldwatch, 1999.
5. Serageldin, op.cit.
6. Paul van Hofwegen, Mark Svendsen et al., A Vision of Water for Food and Rural Development , The World Bank and the Netherlands Directorate General for Development Cooperation, February 2000.
7. Serageldin, op.cit.

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